Scarcity leads to higher prices. That’s why there is profit in creating an illusion that the world is short of oil. We do need to pursue alternative energy sources but we shouldn’t worry about oil shortages.
From the NY Times Op Ed, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/25/opinion/25lynch.html
But those are just the latest arguments — for the most part the peak-oil crowd rests its case on three major claims: that the world is discovering only one barrel for every three or four produced; that political instability in oil-producing countries puts us at an unprecedented risk of having the spigots turned off; and that we have already used half of the two trillion barrels of oil that the earth contained.
Let’s take the rate-of-discovery argument first: it is a statement that reflects ignorance of industry terminology. When a new field is found, it is given a size estimate that indicates how much is thought to be recoverable at that point in time. But as years pass, the estimate is almost always revised upward, either because more pockets of oil are found in the field or because new technology makes it possible to extract oil that was previously unreachable. Yet because petroleum geologists don’t report that additional recoverable oil as “newly discovered,” the peak oil advocates tend to ignore it. In truth, the combination of new discoveries and revisions to size estimates of older fields has been keeping pace with production for many years.
…
The latest acorn in the discovery debate is a recent increase in the overall estimated rate at which production is declining in large oil fields. This is assumed to be the result of the “superstraw” technologies that have become dominant over the past decade, which can drain fields faster than ever. True, because quicker extraction causes the fluid pressure in the field to drop rapidly, the wells become less and less productive over time. But this declining return on individual wells doesn’t necessarily mean that whole fields are being cleaned out. As the Saudis have proved in recent years at Ghawar, additional investment — to find new deposits and drill new wells — can keep a field’s overall production from falling.
When their shaky claims on geology are exposed, the peak-oil advocates tend to argue that today’s geopolitical instability needs to be taken into consideration…
In the end, perhaps the most misleading claim of the peak-oil advocates is that the earth was endowed with only 2 trillion barrels of “recoverable” oil. Actually, the consensus among geologists is that there are some 10 trillion barrels out there. A century ago, only 10 percent of it was considered recoverable, but improvements in technology should allow us to recover some 35 percent — another 2.5 trillion barrels — in an economically viable way. And this doesn’t even include such potential sources as tar sands, which in time we may be able to efficiently tap.
A novel way to combat global warming is gaining ground. From http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article6742023.ece
One relatively cheap solution, however, is gaining favour among many different groups and is endorsed today by an independent study that compares the costs and benefits of all the main ideas. A wind-powered fleet of 1,900 ships would criss-cross the oceans, sucking up sea water and spraying it from the top of tall funnels to create vast white clouds.
These clouds would reflect a tiny proportion, between 1 and 2 per cent, of the sunlight that would otherwise warm the ocean. This would be enough to cancel out the greenhouse effect caused by carbon dioxide emissions. The ships would be unmanned and directed by satellite to locations with the best conditions for increasing cloud cover. They would mainly operate in the Pacific, far enough from land to avoid interfering with rainfall.
The idea has been circulating for a decade but until now has merely been one of many climate engineering pipedreams. A study commissioned by the Copenhagen Consensus Centre, a think-tank that advises governments on how to spend aid money, found that the fleet would cost $9 billion (£5.3 billion) to test and launch within 25 years. This is a fraction of the $250 billion that the world’s leading nations are considering spending each year to cut CO2 emissions.
The Royal Society is expected to announce next month that cloud-forming ships are one of the most promising ideas.
The Copenhagen study also looked at a scheme to mimic the effect of major volcanic eruptions, which have a global cooling effect lasting a year or more. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991 sent billions of tonnes of sulphur dioxide and other particles into the atmosphere. These formed a haze that shielded the sun’s rays and reduced global average temperature by about 0.5C.
The eruption of Mount Tambora in Indonesia in 1815 had an even more dramatic effect: 1816 became known as the year without summer.
Many scientists have proposed different methods of injecting particles, or aerosols, into the atmosphere, including using squadrons of air tankers, possibly based in the Arctic to focus on protecting the ice cap.
The study concluded that the scheme would cost $230 billion and would be much harder to control than cloud-producing ships, which could be switched off if shown to have adverse effects. The study dismissed the space sunshade idea after calculating that the costs of launching the mirrors would be $395 trillion.
“The space sunshade is really just science fiction but cloud whitening ships deserve serious scrutiny,” said Bjorn Lomborg, director of the think-tank. He argues that, although global warming is a huge problem, there might be better ways of addressing it then simply cutting CO2 emissions. “We need to have a debate about all of the options, not just the politically correct one of reducing CO2,” he said.
He is hosting a conference in Washington DC next month at which a panel of Nobel laureates will vote on the most cost-effective solution.
Rival teams of British and American scientists are seeking funding for sea trials of prototype cloud-forming ships. The Carnegie Institute has donated several hundred thousand dollars to the US team. The British team, led by John Latham, an atmospheric physicist at the University of Manchester, and Stephen Salter, an engineer at the University of Edinburgh, is working with a Finnish shipping company, Meriaura.
I think the idea is absolutely brillant and the cost is a fraction of other schemes and easily bareable by the world’s largest economies. Of course, not everyone agrees. From http://www.theresilientearth.com/?q=content/crank-week-september-1-2008-john-latham
The 300-ton unmanned ships would be powered by the wind, but would not use conventional sails. Instead they would be fitted with a number of 100 ft high, 8 ft in diameter cylinders known as Flettner rotors. The continuous rotation of these cylinders would generate a force perpendicular to the wind direction, propelling the ship forward if it is oriented at right angles to the wind.
Illustration by John MacNeill
The scheme relies on the “Twomey effect”, which says that increasing the concentration of water droplets within a cloud raises the overall surface area of the droplets and thereby enhances the cloud’s albedo. Albedo is the measurement of how reflective an object, like a planet, is. The more reflective Earth is the more solar radiation is reflected back into space, reducing the Sun’s heating effect. By spraying fine droplets of sea water into the air, the small particles of salt within each droplet act as new centers of condensation: the more condensation the more low cloud cover, the more low cloud cover the higher Earth’s albedo, the higher Earth’s albedo the lower Earth’s surface temperature—global warming solved.
There is a driving need for us to connect and discover spiritual knowledge that goes way beyond just and interest or curiosity. This need is our Navigator struggling to find a way to help us awaken to our higher consciousness. It is the survival instinct of our higher consciousness.
This process is difficult because we cannot understand the meaning of the message from our higher consciousness with normal human thinking. The way the brain thinks is too structured and the knowledge of our higher consciousness is without constructs!
At this stage, we receive bits of information and the Navigator helps us find tools and knowledge that we add to our brain to help it develop and interpret the message of our higher consciousness, which will really lead to awakening. This is the purpose of the Navigator and what it is really trying to do. It is trying to find the knowledge, the tools, the equipment or the wiring for what we are building! We are building a receiver to download our higher consciousness into our current consciousness.
- page 29. “The Handbook of the Navigator“, Eric J. Pepin
A brilliant succinct way to describe our spritual searching. But is is only when you can find what you are looking for and build enough wiring into your brain, that you realize how perfectly true the above state is.
Did I mention that you provide your email address to the above web page and recieve a link to download the entire Hanbook, all ten chapters (in PDF format) for free.
On Intellect
From “The Handbook of the Navigator“, page 21.
This is the problem with your intellect, it allows you to understand but it causes you to question. It causes you to doubt the very instinct inside of you. Many times you cannot even tell if the strange … [experience] is real or just a figment of your imagination…
- Eric J. Pepin
People who live too much in their heads can have a very difficult beginning to their spiritual journeys. But with perseverance and a willingness to change, intelligence can become a powerful advantage instead of a disadvantage.
On Faith
Faith is not required to embark on a spiritual journey. Only an open mind and a will to put forth effort.
“Effort is the universal currency.”
- Eric J. Pepin
All that is gold does not glitter,
Not all those who wander are lost;
The old that is strong does not wither,
Deep roots are not reached by the frost.
From the ashes a fire shall be woken,
A light from the shadows shall spring;
Renewed shall be blade that was broken,
The crownless again shall be king.
-J.R.R. Tolkien
Your whole life has been a search for meaning,
purpose, and completeness.
You are aware of a sense within you that seemingly directs you
as if it were a compass navigating your essence.
This navigator gives you a sense of knowing; directing you
away from the trappings of mans religions and structured
thinking.
It is elusive to structural thinking.
An in-between place that defies logic
as humanity understands it.
Your hidden senses tell you, that what your eyes see,
and hands touch, is not all that there is.
You look around in a distant way and then you listen deeply,
breathe deeply, feel deeply and
It is then that you know there is a veil between you
some other place that holds and understanding
to that which you are.
Then, without seemingly knowing, you want, and need,
to become one with IT.
Do you remember?
- Eric Pepin, “The Handbook of the Navigator”
Big car companies originally built all electric cars. There were tried in California in 1999 (see the documentary “Who Killed the Electric Car?“). But battery technology wasn’t yet ready. Lead acid batteries are too heavy. Lithium ion batteries were and are still too expensive. So big car companies have moved to hybrid cars (electric + batteries + gas powered engine). The disadvantage of hybrids is the high cost, high complexity and high number of parts.
Now we have some small car companies again producing all electric cars. Notable companies include Tesla Motors and the ZENN Motor Company.
Tesla sells their flashy and expensive Roadster for $100,000. The 2009 ZENN from Canada sells their 2009 model for between $16,000 and $20,000. Electric cars have almost arrived. They are only missing one thing… a better battery.
ZENN Motor company invested in and Lockheed Martin signed a marketing deal with a little known and secretive company from Texas, EEStor Inc. This company makes capacitive storage devices that have the potential to replace batteries. According to the claims, they would be lighter than Lithium ion, cost the same as lead acid, recharge in minutes, and last forever. EEStor has a patent for their invention. And the first devices from a production line are scheduled to be delievered by the end of 2009. We will see if the claims pan out.
For the physcists and electrical engineers out there, here is a link to an in depth interview: Transcript of Weir June 2009 Conference Call.
Best blog for the latest info & gossip: http://bariumtitanate.blogspot.com/